Pune| May 28, 2025: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-average rainfall across most parts of the country during the upcoming monsoon season. According to the latest update, rainfall between June and September is expected to be around 106% of the long-period average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±4%.
All four meteorological sub-divisions of Maharashtra are also likely to receive more rainfall than usual, as per IMD’s revised projections. This updated seasonal forecast was released on Tuesday in a hybrid format by the Ministry of Earth Sciences at an event held in New Delhi.
Present at the announcement were Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD. The IMD had earlier projected 105% of the LPA in its April forecast, which has now been revised to 106%. The national average monsoon rainfall is typically around 870 millimeters.
Neutral Conditions Expected for Key Weather Influencers:
The monsoon is expected to be bolstered by neutral conditions of two key climatic factors – El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). According to Dr. Mohapatra, due to these neutral conditions, most parts of India, excluding regions like Ladakh, Bihar, and parts of Northeast India, are likely to experience above-average rainfall.
He further noted that there is an 89% probability of the country receiving normal or above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season. This outlook is particularly significant for sectors such as agriculture, water resource management, and hydropower planning.
